(NEW YORK) -- Mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level since May as negotiations between the United States and Iran ease financial markets.

The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage stands at 6.43%, down from last week's rate of 6.49%, Freddie Mac data on Thursday showed.

Still, mortgage rates register above their level before the war with Iran. Prior to the Middle East conflict in late February, a 30-year fixed mortgage clocked in at an average just below 6%.

“Rates did drop, which does provide some relief. But they’re still high,” Julia Fonseca, a professor at the Gies College of Business at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, told ABC News.

A decline in mortgage rates over recent weeks has come in response to a drop in oil prices and Treasury yields, some analysts told ABC News. The shift has partially reversed a trend that took hold after the Iran war broke out.

At that time, mortgage rates surged in response to a jump in U.S. Treasury yields, or the amount paid annually to a holder of government debt. The rise in bond yields is owed to fear of a renewed bout of inflation as oil prices climbed.

Since bonds pay a given investor a fixed amount each year, the specter of inflation risks higher consumer prices that would eat away at those annual payouts. In turn, bonds often become less attractive in response to economic turmoil. When demand falls, bond yields rise.

High bond yields make borrowing more expensive for average Americans, since 10-year Treasury rates influence the rates offered for a variety of loans, including mortgages.

Bond yields eased in recent weeks as negotiations unfolded between the U.S. and Iran, pushing down oil prices and softening inflation expectations, Ken Johnson, a real estate economist at the University of Mississippi, told ABC News. In turn, Johnson said, mortgage rates have fallen.

“The big driver has been the cooling of tensions in the Gulf,” Johnson told ABC News.

Despite the recent drop, mortgage rates remain higher than their pre-war level. Even more, mortgage rates stand well above their level as recently as 2022, when the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage came in below 5%.

Elevated mortgage rates have contributed to a phenomenon known as the "lock-in" effect.

Mortgage rates remain well above the rates enjoyed by most current homeowners, who may be reluctant to put their homes on the market and risk a much higher rate on their next mortgage.

“Rates are still pretty high relative to what they were a few years ago, but every drop in mortgage rates helps. This is not going to go all the way toward unlocking people. We might see this gradual unlocking as time goes by and as rates tick down,” Fonseca said.

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(NEW YORK) -- Hiring slowed markedly in June, falling short of economists' expectations and displaying a wobbly labor market amid elevated inflation set off by the Iran war.

The U.S. added 57,000 jobs in June, according to the federal government's monthly jobs report, which marked a decline from 172,000 jobs added in May.

The sluggish pace recorded in June departs from strong performance for the labor market so far in 2026. Employers added a robust average of about 114,000 jobs each month from January to May, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showed.

The unemployment rate fell slightly from 4.3% in May to 4.2% in June, the BLS said. Unemployment remains low by historical standards.

The professional and business services sector led job gains, adding 36,000 positions in June. Significant job gains also came in healthcare, though the pace of job growth slowed in that sector.

Hiring had proven unexpectedly resilient, despite a rise in costs borne by businesses and shoppers.

The Middle East conflict, which began on Feb. 28, prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of the global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded.

The pace of annual inflation stands at 4.2%, clocking in at more than twice the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.

The combination of elevated inflation and a resilient labor market has raised the chances of an interest rate hike, futures markets show, posing a risk for corporations eager to keep borrowing costs relatively low.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh briefly sent stocks tumbling this month during his first press conference atop the central bank. Warsh voiced a commitment to bringing inflation down to the Fed's desired level.

"Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people," Warsh told reporters in Washington, D.C. "This committee will deliver price stability."

Futures markets peg the odds of an interest rate hike in September at about 64%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, a measure of investor sentiment.

To be sure, the path forward for interest rates remains highly uncertain. Oil and gasoline prices have eased in recent weeks in response to negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, offering hope of a cooldown of inflation in the absence of rate increases.

On Wednesday, Warsh weighed in on the bullish side of an ongoing debate among policymakers, investors and the general public about the potential impact of AI on the labor market and wider economy.

The technology could create jobs and boost productivity, strengthening the economy of the U.S. and other nations, according to Warsh.

"This is a big paradigm shift both for the conduct of our policy and for our economies," Warsh said. "I think the jobs will be greater. Prosperity will be stronger."

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(NEW YORK) -- The Social Security fund will run out of money in as little as six years, a shorter time frame than previously estimated, according to a report released earlier this month by the programs' trustees.

News of the funding cliff prompted a pair of lawmakers to reach across the aisle and propose a rescue plan in an opinion piece last week for the New York Times.

Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., called for lifting a cap on the amount of annual income subject to the payroll tax that funds Social Security. Currently, the cap stands at $184,500.

In other words, the plan would require individuals making more than $184,500 per year to pay taxes on the entirety of their income, potentially generating trillions in additional funds for the program over the next 10 years.

The proposal could, in theory, help administrators avoid painful solutions for recipients, such as a reduction of Social Security payments.

Legislation reflecting the proposal has not been introduced. In the New York Times, Moreno and Warren said they are "working on legislation." Spokespeople for Moreno and Warren declined to comment on the status of the measure.

Here's what to know about a new bipartisan proposal for safeguarding Social Security:

Is Social Security in financial trouble?

Yes, the program faces an ever-tightening budget squeeze over the next handful of years, according to a report this month from the Social Security fund's trustees.

The Social Security trust fund will run dry in 2032, unless Congress combines the program's old-age and disability funds, in which case insolvency would arrive in 2034, the report found. A finding last year from the program's trustees predicted Social Security would become insolvent in 2033 or 2034.

The program generates revenue through a payroll tax paid by employees and employers, setting the income apart from the overall federal budget. Since the early 2010s, however, Social Security has paid more in benefits than it takes in through taxes, shrinking the program's available funds, according to a study issued by the Urban Institute earlier this year.

The budget shortfall has been exacerbated by a decline in births and a reduction of immigration, resulting in fewer taxpayers at the same time that many Baby Boomers have begun receiving benefits. The One Big Beautiful Bill also removed a tax on Social Security benefits, depleting another source of the program's revenue.

What is the Social Security reform proposal from Warren and Moreno?

The bipartisan reform proposal would tweak the payroll tax that funds Social Security.

The program is funded by a 12.4% payroll tax, which is evenly split between employers and workers. The tax, however, applies only to a maximum of $184,500 in annual income, meaning any income beyond that amount remains tax free.

The proposal put forward by Warren and Moreno would lift the cap on taxable income, allowing the tax to apply to the entirety of a person's income even if they make more than $184,500 per year.

"Since the vast majority of Americans make less than that, most people are paying Social Security taxes on 100 percent of their earnings while the highest earners are paying on only part of theirs," Warren and Moreno said in a co-authored opinion piece in the New York Times.

The elimination of the cap on taxable income would generate about $3.4 trillion in added revenue over the next decade, according to an analysis from the non-partisan Peterson Institute. The policy change would close more than half of the program's funding gap, the group said.

"With rising prices and artificial intelligence causing economic uncertainty for the future, Social Security must remain a stable foundation to help retirees afford life's basic necessities," Warren and Moreno said.

The proposal drew opposition from at least one conservative lawmaker. Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, faulted the plan for what he described as a "giant tax increase."

"We need to secure social security, we need to protect it, we need to make it stronger," Husted told “The Guy Benson Show" last week. "But I'm not on board with the approach that they've outlined."

What are some alternative reforms for funding Social Security?

As the program's budget woes have deepened in recent years, elected officials and researchers have proposed a range of solutions. As with any financial shortfall, the fixes either increase revenue or slash expenses.

An alternate means of increasing tax revenue for the program involves ratcheting up the payroll tax by one percentage point from 12.4% to 13.4%, the Peterson Institute said. That move would generate $601 billion in additional revenue over 10 years, closing about a quarter of the program's funding gap, the group added.

If Congress fails to address the projected budget shortfalls, automatic cuts will dial back Social Security benefits by about 25% in 2032, the Social Security fund's trustees said earlier this month.

Earlier this month, a bipartisan bill introduced in the House proposed establishing an independent commission composed of 13 members appointed by leaders in Congress and the president. The commission would seek out fixes for the long-term sustainability of the program. The bill, which counts three cosponsors, has been appointed to two House committees for consideration.

As the years pass, the task of reforming Social Security becomes a greater and greater challenge, the Urban Institute said.

"Waiting only makes the changes larger and more difficult," the group added.

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(NEW YORK) -- Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday voiced optimism about artificial intelligence, describing the technology as a "paradigm shift" that would likely make the United States a "big winner in the medium-term."

"We are in the first or second inning of this revolution," Warsh said in Sintra, Portugal, at a conference organized by the European Central Bank.

Warsh, who took the helm of the Fed last month, weighed in on the bullish side of an ongoing debate among policymakers, investors and the general public about the potential impact of AI on the labor market and wider economy.

The technology could create jobs and boost productivity, strengthening the economy of the U.S. and other nations, according to Warsh.

"This is a big paradigm shift both for the conduct of our policy and for our economies," Warsh said. "I think the jobs will be greater. Prosperity will be stronger."

Business investment in AI has helped drive recent U.S. economic growth, some studies show.

A surge of AI spending accounted for roughly two-thirds of gross domestic product growth over the first half of 2025, JPMorgan Asset Management found, outpacing the contribution made by hundreds of millions of U.S. consumers. Many of the nation's largest companies have poured funds into the chips and data centers necessary to operate AI.

AI chipmakers, meanwhile, have helped deliver stock market gains this year, allowing the major indexes to overcome a lackluster stretch for many of the tech giants that previously lifted markets.

Shares of fast-rising AI chipmakers have boosted major indexes. Micron has soared 265% in value this year. Sandisk has climbed a staggering 750% over that period.

For now, however, AI has failed to achieve gains on a scale near its immense costs, some analysts previously told ABC News. A product like AI would typically generate revenue in the form of sales either direct to consumers or to third-party businesses using the technology to enhance their offerings. AI has faced challenges on both fronts, some analysts said.

Speaking on Wednesday, Warsh signaled that he expects a shift in sentiment among businesses regarding the impact of AI.

"While we might see business surveys that say 'no big deal,' my speculation is six months from now the surveys will be saying quite the opposite," Warsh said.

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(NEW YORK) -- A trio of progressive Democrats sharply criticized billionaires on their way to victory in House primaries in New York City.

The clean sweep for candidates endorsed by far-left New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani on Tuesday drew attention to economic populism as affordability remains a top issue for voters ahead of the midterm elections.

In Manhattan and Brooklyn's 10th District, incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman lost in a landslide to former comptroller Brad Lander, who vowed to "put working people first – not billionaires."

Darializa Avila Chevalier, a community organizer, defeated incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat in New York's 13th District, which covers upper Manhattan and the Bronx. Claire Valdez, a one-term state assemblymember, beat Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso in the primary race for New York's 7th District.

Valdez and Chevalier, both of whom are democratic socialists, called for a four-day work week and a pause in the construction of AI data centers, among other measures.

To be sure, center-leaning candidates won Democratic primaries on Tuesday in upstate New York and Utah. New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill and Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who are both Democrats, won general elections last year with moderate campaigns touting their own plans to ease price woes.

Here's what to know about economic proposals put forward by Lander, Chevalier and Valdez:

Tax on billionaires

All three of the victorious progressive House candidates support a tax on wealthy individuals.

Lander "strongly supports" the Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act, a bill proposed by Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren that would tax the net wealth of households with over $50 million, according to Lander's website.

Lander also backs an ultra-wealth tax on individuals worth over $1 billion, as well as the Equal Tax Act, which matches tax rates for capital gains and ordinary income over $1 million.

Chevalier supports the Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act and the Equal Tax Act. Similarly, Valdez has voiced support for taxing billionaires as means of funding social programs.

The top opponents in each of the three primary races held similar positions. Both Espaillat and Goldman had signed on to the Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act and the Equal Tax Act. Reynoso said he would "fight to tax the rich – a lot."

Proponents say wealth taxes could raise tax revenue from affluent Americans in a position to spare funds. Critics, on the other hand, warn wealthy individuals may move assets abroad or prove less likely to start businesses or other ventures.

For his part, Mamdani sought a two-percentage-point tax increase for residents making more than $1 million, which would have raised the tax rate for high earners in New York City from roughly 3.9% to 5.9%.

Instead, New York enacted a tax on second homes in New York City valued at $1 million or more.

Pause on construction of AI data centers

All three progressive House candidates back a moratorium on the construction of AI data centers.

Many of the nation's largest companies have poured funds into the chips and data centers necessary to operate AI.

The data center projects have drawn ire from critics who say they drive up residential water and electricity bills in some areas, while offering limited job gains. Proponents of the sector point to its role in fueling economic growth and ensuring the competitiveness of U.S. tech firms.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y, have proposed the AI Data Center Moratorium Act, which would pause the development of data centers until the federal government imposes industry regulations.

Goldman, Lander's opponent, signed onto the AI Data Center Moratorium Act. By contrast, Espaillat – Chevalier's opponent – has not supported the bill. Reynoso's position on a data center moratorium could not be immediately found.

On her campaign website, Valdez said she would "fight to hold major technology corporations accountable, protect our workforce from the harms of AI, and ensure that new technologies benefit communities, not just corporate executives."

Four-day work week

Chevalier and Valdez support shifting from a standard workweek of 40 hours spread across five days to one lasting 32 hours across four days.

Such an approach, Valdez says, would reclaim the "economic gains of automation for workers."

Spain, Iceland and South Africa are among the nations that have implemented a trial of the four-day workweek for select companies and workers.

In California and the U.S. House, lawmakers have introduced bills that would set the standard workweek at 32 hours.

The Thirty-Two Hour Workweek Act, introduced in the U.S. House in March 2023, garnered support from eight members. Neither Goldman nor Espaillat was among the backers.

Reynoso's position on a four-day workweek could not be immediately found, though last month he spoke in support of unionized Kickstart employees seeking a four-day workweek as part of their labor contract.

Some experts previously told ABC News that a combination of escalating market pressure and legislative activity could ultimately bring a nationwide four-day workweek standard; others said such an outcome would prove nearly impossible, at least anytime soon.

Labor law reform

The share of unionized workers has fallen nationwide in recent decades. All three of the New York City progressives say they want to reverse that.

Lander, Valdez and Chevalier each support the PRO Act, a labor law reform measure with strong backing among U.S. labor unions.

The legislation would ease the path toward forming unions and winning labor contracts. The latest version of the bill, known as the Richard L. Trumka Protecting the Right to Organize Act, boasts the support of 215 House members, including at least one Republican.

Both Goldman and Espaillat signed onto the PRO Act. Reynoso, meanwhile, vowed to "champion the PRO Act."

On her campaign website, Chevalier calls for passage of the PRO Act, so that "everyone who wants a union can form one."

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(NEW YORK) -- Global oil prices on Wednesday fell to their lowest level since before the outbreak of the Iran war.

Brent crude futures, the benchmark index for worldwide trading, dropped to $73.50 a barrel. That figure, which amounted to a nearly 5% decline on Wednesday, marked the lowest price since Feb. 27, the day before the Middle East conflict began.

Stock prices, meanwhile, ticked higher Wednesday after a down day Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 105 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 increased 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Gas prices fell below $4 per gallon last week, crossing the milestone as oil costs eased in response to negotiations between the U.S. and Iran to end the war.

The national average price of a gallon of gas stands at $3.92, marking a decline of 58 cents, or 13%, over the past month, AAA data showed. Gas prices, however, remain 94 cents higher than where they stood before the Iran war.

The Middle East conflict prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of the global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded, sending gasoline prices higher.

Delegations from the United States and Iran arrived over the weekend at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland, where they began negotiations aimed at a war-ending deal based on a memorandum of understanding signed last week by both countries.

The memorandum in part called on Iran to allow commercial shipping to resume through the strait, and to do so toll-free for the next 60 days.

In a social media post on Wednesday, President Donald Trump said Iran told him that there would be "no tolls, no insurance costs" and "no other charges of any kind" for ships traveling through the strait.

Claims to the contrary are "troublemaking" false reports, Trump said in the post.

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(NEW YORK) -- Alan Greenspan, the longtime chairman of the Federal Reserve, has died, his wife confirmed. He was 100 years old.

"Alan passed away at our home this morning at the age of 100 from complications of Parkinson’s Disease,” Andrea Mitchell, his wife and a chief correspondent at NBC News, said in a statement published by the network on Monday.

The economist is remembered for leading the American central bank amid periods of historic U.S. economic expansion, while critics have also said his policies contributed to and exacerbated the mortgage crisis and financial crash of 2008.

Greenspan, a libertarian Republican, became the 13th chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System two months before the stock market crash on Oct. 19,1987, known as Black Monday. He was credited with moving quickly to alleviate investors' fears after the crash and was instrumental in ensuring the Federal Reserve made plenty of money available to alleviate the impact on financial markets. Stocks quickly rebounded.

He was appointed Fed chair by four different presidents during his career, first by Ronald Reagan in 1987. Greenspan continued to serve as Fed chairman under presidents George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. He steered the U.S. economy through the economic boom in the 1990s, the dotcom bubble, and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. His final term as chair ended on Jan. 31, 2006.

Under his leadership, the Fed fostered a distaste for regulation and promoted very low interest rates in the early 2000s -- two phenomena critics say encouraged a bubble in housing prices that eventually burst with disastrous effects on the global economy.

During his tenure, and before the financial crisis began, the nation experienced one of the longest periods of economic growth in its history.

A decorated economist, first inspired by music

Greenspan was born on March 6, 1926, in New York City, the only child of Herbert Greenspan, a stockbroker, and Rose Goldsmith Greenspan, a retail worker. His parents divorced when he was 4 years old, and he was raised mainly by his mother and his grandparents.

An aspiring musician, Greenspan attended Juilliard for a year and played saxophone and clarinet before dropping out and enrolling at New York University. He went on to gain his bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees in economics from New York University. He also engaged in some advanced graduate work at Columbia University in New York, where he studied under the influential economist Arthur Burns.

Though short-lived, his music career was an influential portion of Greenspan's life, and he considered the move into economics a logical progression. He saw the organization of economic data into sound fiscal modeling as analogous to the organization of musical notes into tunes, according to Greenspan biographer Justin Martin in his book, "Greenspan: The Man Behind Money."

"I get the same kind of joy from solving a hard mathematical problem as I do from hearing a Haydn quartet," Greenspan once told The New York Times Magazine.

Greenspan taught economics at NYU between 1953 and 1955 and then founded the economic consulting firm Townsend & Greenspan, where he served as chairman and president from 1954 to 1974. He returned to the firm in 1977 and stayed until 1987.

President Richard Nixon nominated Greenspan to chair the President's Council of Economic Advisers in 1974, the first of many government economic positions he would hold. Nixon resigned as president hours after Greenspan was nominated, but he continued to serve under President Gerald Ford. Greenspan also served as a member of President Ronald Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board and was a consultant to the Congressional Budget Office.

In the private sector, Greenspan served as corporate director for many companies, including Alcoa, General Foods and J.P. Morgan & Co. He also served as a member of Time magazine's Board of Economists and a senior adviser to the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity.

In 2002, Greenspan received an honorary knighthood from Queen Elizabeth II in recognition of his contribution to global economic stability. In 2005, President George W. Bush presented Greenspan with the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

He held the position of Fed chairman from the time Reagan appointed him in 1987 until 2006, serving an unprecedented five terms under four presidents before being succeeded by Ben Bernanke.

Greenspan is credited by many with facilitating the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. One day after the Black Monday stock crash, Greenspan affirmed the Fed's "readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system" and the central bank moved to encourage banks to lend on their normal terms. Unlike prior financial crises, the events of Black Monday notably were not followed by an economic recession or a banking crisis and less than two years later, the U.S. stock market surpassed its pre-crash highs.

During his tenure, Greenspan developed a reputation for being a consensus-builder and for his strong anti-inflation stance, focusing more on controlling prices than on promoting full employment. He led the Federal Reserve through several events with major economic consequences, including two U.S. recessions, the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

'How could we have possibly got it so wrong?'

Starting in June 2003, the Federal Reserve set the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks typically borrow from each other, to one percent for a year. Though its intention was to lower the cost of borrowing and stimulate the economy, critics said the rate was too low and encouraged investments in risky subprime mortgage-backed securities, which they say contributed to the financial crisis in 2008.

The National Bureau of Economic Research, a research organization seen as an authority on measuring economic performance, later said that the recession officially began in December 2007.

In September 2007, Greenspan published a book that was both a memoir and economic commentary, "The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World," in which he criticized the George W. Bush administration for overspending and admitted that he supported the administration's tax cuts without stressing the need for spending cuts.

In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek in August 2012, Greenspan said, "one day before Lehman Brothers crashes, conventional wisdom was not even certain that we would fall into a recession."

"In fact, we learned many months later that the downward trend had actually started," Greenspan said. "How could we have possibly got it so wrong? I mean, I actually was saying, 'Yes, recession is coming, not that we're here yet.' We didn't know that it had already hit."

In October 2008, Greenspan acknowledged to a congressional committee discussing financial regulation that, "I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such as that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms."

After Greenspan finished his term as chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2006, he established Greenspan Associates, an economic consulting firm in Washington, D.C.

With Greenspan as president, the firm had four employees as of October 2012. His client list has included giant finance clients like German firm Deutsche Bank and hedge fund Paulson & Co.

Personal life

Greenspan married artist Joan Mitchell in 1952. The couple divorced in 1953 after less than a year of marriage, and the marriage was later annulled. The two remained friends.

His first wife is remembered for introducing him to novelist and philosopher Ayn Rand, with whom Greenspan shared a friendship, a belief in free-market economic ideals and a philosophy of objectivism. In his 30s and early 40s, Greenspan spent many hours sitting with Rand's band of followers, known as the "Collective," discussing topics including politics philosophy, current events and economics.

In addition to Burns at Columbia, Rand and her group were instrumental in helping hone Greenspan's capitalist, free-market economic philosophy, according to Martin, Greenspan's biographer.

The group's open style of debate and discussion served Greenspan well in his various governmental roles. During his career in public service, he became known for a well-developed ability to communicate with Congress without offending those with opposing viewpoints or politicizing his messages.

Though he was said to back revamping the Social Security system and raising the retirement age, Greenspan was wary of how his public statements as Fed chairman might move markets. He rarely granted interviews. He was known for making openly ambiguous public statements about the state of the U.S. economy, once telling Congress, "If I've made myself too clear, you must have misunderstood me."

Greenspan married NBC News correspondent Mitchell in 1997. Their marriage was officiated by the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

"We've had the most wonderful marriage," he told Bloomberg Businessweek in August 2012. "It gets better every year. We're still very much together in love."

Mitchell is Greenspan's only surviving family.

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(WASHINGTON) -- The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest decision on interest rates on Wednesday as the central bank weathers the highest inflation in three years.

The announcement will mark the first possible adjustment of the benchmark interest rate since Trump nominee Kevin Warsh began his four-year term as Fed chair last month.

The policy move is also set to arrive at a moment of flux for the nation’s economy, just days after an agreement between the United States and Iran offered hope for some price relief.

The U.S.-Iran accord, set to be formally signed on Friday, came as gasoline prices fell below $4 a gallon for the first time since March. Still, fuel costs stand well above pre-war levels, and an array of grocery prices remain elevated.

Futures markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady when policymakers meet on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of investor sentiment.

In recent weeks, however, odds have risen for a potential interest rate hike by the end of 2026, the tool showed, granting a roughly four in 10 chance of a quarter-point increase in December.

The shift in expectations came after a stronger-than-expected jobs report earlier this month showed robust hiring in May. In theory, a resilient labor market could afford central bankers leeway to raise interest rates in an effort to dial back inflation, since elevated borrowing costs risk a hiring slowdown.

Inflation jumped for a third consecutive month as the Iran war continued to drive up prices in May, surpassing 4% for the first time in three years

The Middle East conflict prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded, sending gasoline prices surging.

On Monday, President Donald Trump announced a U.S.-Iran deal that included plans to reopen the strait. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the deal had been finalized and said it would be signed in Switzerland on Friday. Oil prices fell to their lowest level since March.

The benchmark rate stands at a level between 3.5% and 3.75%. That figure marks a significant drop from a recent peak attained in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The rate decision will be the first major policy move overseen by Warsh, who will address reporters during a customary press conference minutes after the central bank issues its announcement.

During his term as a Fed governor in the late 2000s and early 2010s, Warsh gained a reputation as an interest-rate "hawk," meaning he generally preferred higher interest rates as a means of ensuring low and stable inflation.

Last year, Warsh voiced support for lower interest rates. At his Senate confirmation hearing in April, Warsh emphasized the threat posed by elevated inflation.

"When inflation surges -- as it has done in recent years -- grievous harm is done to our citizens, especially to the least well-off," Warsh said.

Bucking typical norms, former Fed Chair Jerome Powell Powell will cast a vote on interest rates as a member of the Fed's 12-person policymaking board.

Powell said he would stay on at the central bank's board of governors after his term as chair expired as an investigation into the Fed's office renovation continues.

The Department of Justice moved to drop a criminal probe into Powell in April, calling on the Fed's inspector general to carry out the investigation into cost overruns tied to the renovation. Powell will remain on the Fed's board for an indeterminate length of time, he said last month.

The criminal investigation into Powell focused on alleged false testimony to Congress about an office renovation. Powell, who was appointed by Trump in 2017, has rebuked the probe as a politically motivated effort to influence interest-rate policy. Trump denied any involvement in the criminal investigation.

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(NEW YORK) -- Oil prices on Monday fell to their lowest level since March after U.S. officials announced an agreement between the United States and Iran.

West Texas Intermediate futures price, the benchmark index for U.S. trading, registered at about $80.40. That figure, which amounted to a 5% drop on Monday, marked the lowest price since March 5, just a week after the outbreak of the Iran war.

Stock prices, meanwhile, climbed on hopes of a resolution to the Iran war. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 530 points, or 1%, while the S&P 500 increased 1.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 2.3%.

Gas prices have fallen toward $4 per gallon in recent weeks, nearing the milestone as oil costs have eased in response to negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.

The national average price of a gallon of gas stands at $4.06, marking a decline of 46 cents, or 10.2%, over the past month, AAA data showed. Gas prices, however, remain $1.08 higher than where they stood before the Iran war.

The Middle East conflict prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded, sending gasoline prices higher.

President Donald Trump said in a Sunday social media post that the U.S. and Iran had reached a deal that will open up the strait.

"I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade," Trump wrote.

"Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" he added.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the deal had been finalized and said it would be signed in Switzerland on Friday.

Trump said the strait would open after the formal signing of the deal on Friday. The oil flow is linked to mine removal, Trump noted.

Crude oil is the main ingredient in auto fuel, accounting for more than half of the price paid at the pump, according to the federal U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The U.S. is a net exporter of petroleum, meaning the country produces more oil than it consumes. But since oil prices are set on a global market, U.S. prices move in response to swings in worldwide supply and demand.

ABC News' David Brennan and Isabella Murray contributed to this report.

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(NEW YORK) -- Consumer sentiment improved in June for the first time since the outbreak of the Iran war as gasoline prices eased in recent weeks, but shopper attitudes remained near their worst level on record, University of Michigan survey data on Friday showed. The reading exceeded economists' expectations.

The survey snapped three consecutive months of dampening consumer sentiment, recovering from an all-time low in May, data showed. The University of Michigan has conducted the survey for the past 80 years.

This improvement in sentiment was widespread, seen across age, education and political party, Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said in a statement. Overall assessments and expectations of personal finances and business conditions all rose in June, she noted.

The fresh figure comes days after a government report on inflation showed the pace of price increases exceeded 4% for the first time in three years.

Prices rose 4.2% in May compared to a year earlier, increasing 0.5% from the prior month, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Consumers expect inflation to move higher over the next year, hitting a pace of 4.8% in June 2027, the University of Michigan survey showed.

The Middle East conflict prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded, sending gasoline prices higher.

Drivers stung by high gas prices have enjoyed some welcome relief over recent weeks, however, even as the impact of the Iran war continues to choke off oil supply.

The national average price of a gallon of gas stands at $4.10, marking a decline of 40 cents, or 8.8%, over the past month, AAA data showed. Gas prices, however, remain $1.12 higher than where they stood before the Iran war.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, could weaken if shopper remains lackluster.

Spending slowed over the first three months of 2026 compared to the previous three-month period, according to government data issued earlier this year. The economy remained solid at the outset of this year, however, as gross domestic product rose 2% on an annualized basis, the report showed.

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(NEW YORK) -- Elon Musk, the wealthiest person alive, could become the first-ever trillionaire when SpaceX goes public on Friday.

The company's founder and CEO is set to own roughly four out of every 10 SpaceX shares after the initial public offering (IPO). If SpaceX were to achieve its target valuation of $1.75 trillion, Musk would accrue hundreds of millions of dollars in new wealth, at least on paper.

SpaceX builds and operates spacecraft, including thousands of satellites deployed in support of its Starlink satellite internet service. Earlier this year, the Texas-based firm merged with xAI, a Musk-led artificial intelligence company that offers the chatbot Grok.

The potential financial windfall would vault Musk even further ahead of other financial titans. Musk currently boasts a net worth of about $780 billion, according to Forbes. The second-wealthiest person in the world, Google founder Larry Page, counts a net worth of $291 billion.

If Musk were to become a trillionaire, his net worth would exceed the wealth of the poorest 46% of the global population, or about 3.8 billion people, according to a report issued by non-profit Oxfam on Thursday.

The benchmark would indicate Musk's wealth had grown about $550 billion over the past year, which breaks down to more than $1 million per day, Oxfam said.

After the IPO, Musk could own a major stake in two of the 10-largest companies in the world as measured by market capitalization: Tesla and SpaceX.

Musk's wealth stems primarily from the sizable stakes he holds in those two companies, Jason Schloetzer, a professor of accounting at Georgetown University who focuses on executive compensation, told ABC News.

His wealth, in other words, will depend in large part on the price of shares in those firms.

The SpaceX IPO has divided stock analysts, some of whom tout its earnings potential in the lucrative aerospace and AI industries, even as others bemoan what they view as pie-in-the-sky initiatives like space-bound data centers.

The company's revenue jumped to $18.7 billion in 2025, soaring 33% compared to the previous year, a financial filing showed. Nearly a quarter of that revenue came from Starlink, which counted millions of subscribers. Still, SpaceX failed to turn a profit, registering a loss of $4.9 billion last year.

The company is targeting a launch price of $135 per share, which would amount to a $1.75 trillion valuation and a massive boon for Musk. Under that scenario, Musk's net worth would sail well beyond $1 trillion. It would mark the largest IPO of all time.

Some analysts, however, have questioned that target valuation. Nicolas Owens, an analyst at Morningstar, issued a memo this week criticizing the hoped-for share price. Citing technological challenges faced by the company's AI initiatives, Owens pegged the value of the stock at about $63 a share, less than half of the target price.

After the IPO, SpaceX will be subject to new attention from public investors and regulators, which could test the company's long-term ambitions, Schloetzer said.

"It remains to be seen whether the valuation of SpaceX can maintain or whether we'll see it come down once it's under the scrutiny of public markets," Schloetzer added.

Observers seeking evidence of potential shareholder gains can look no further than Musk-led Tesla. Over the past five years, Tesla shares have soared 90%, outpacing a 71% rise in the S&P 500 over that time. But shares of Tesla have also been buoyed by moonshot ventures like self-driving taxis and humanoid robotics.

"Clearly, fundamentals matter in the long run," Schloetzer said. "But it seems like Musk has been able to defy fundamentals in the past and he may be able to do that again."

Regardless of its size, the potential influx of wealth from the SpaceX IPO comes with a catch. Musk cannot sell any of his SpaceX shares until a year after the IPO, according to a financial filing. After that, a move to sell shares would erode Musk's stake in the company and reduce his control over decision-making.

"Selling shares would dilute his ownership control and voting power, but he wants to retain that," Schloetzer said. "On paper, you may be wealthy, but that's an asset you're not willing to sell."

Meanwhile, Tesla shareholders last year granted Musk a compensation package that could earn him more than $1 trillion over the coming years, meaning he may eventually push toward a net worth of $2 trillion.

"The numbers are so large it's hard to wrap your brain around," Schloetzer said. 

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(NEW YORK) -- Inflation jumped for a third consecutive month as the Iran war continued to drive up prices in May, surpassing 4% for the first time in three years. The reading matched economists' expectations.

Prices rose 4.2% in May compared to a year earlier, marking an increase from a year-over-year inflation rate of 3.8% in the prior month, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed.

As recently as February, inflation clocked in just a few ticks above the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%.

The Middle East conflict prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded.

Energy prices -- a broad index that includes gasoline -- soared 23% in May compared to a year earlier, data showed.

As a result, gasoline prices surged. The price of an average gallon of gas stood at $4.15 as of Wednesday, AAA data showed -- an increase of $1.17 per gallon since the war began on Feb. 28. That amounts to a nearly 40% price jump in about three-and-a-half months.

The oil shortage also drove up diesel prices, putting upward pressure on grocery prices. Diesel is the lifeblood of the food supply chain, fueling trucks and ships. Higher fuel costs for suppliers mean price hikes in grocery aisles as the increased costs are passed down the supply chain.

Prices for tomatoes soared 32% in May compared to a year earlier, government data showed. Seafood prices jumped 6% over that period, while beef prices climbed nearly 13%.

A persistent increase in consumer prices may put pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates as a means of dialing back inflation.

What does the inflation report mean for consumers?

The latest price data spells more bad news for shoppers, helping to explain widely felt angst in the check-out aisle.

In May, shoppers registered their worst sentiment on record in a survey conducted each month by the University of Michigan since 1952.

Prices ticked higher last month for a range of essentials, including food, gasoline and medical care. Overall, inflation stands at its highest level since April 2023.

"Americans are getting crushed by high prices and they’re telling us every chance they get that they can’t keep up," Janelle Jones, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Groundwork Collaborative and a former chief economist at the Labor Department under President Joe Biden, told ABC News in a statement.

Inflation outpaced the rate of wage gains for the second consecutive months, eating away at the purchasing power of take-home pay for many Americans.

A continued decline in real wages -- a term used by economists to describe inflation-adjusted pay -- could erode the spending power of middle- and lower-income Americans over the second half of the year, Joseph Brusuelas, principal and chief economist at RSM, told ABC News.

Still, the inflation report offered a bright spot. Core inflation -- a measure of price increases that strips out volatile food and energy prices -- clocked at 2.9% over the year ending in May. While the figure marked its highest level since September, it came in well below the overall inflation rate.

Preston Caldwell, chief U.S. economist at Morningstar, described the core inflation rate as "close to normal."

Between April and May, meanwhile, prices declined for some products like apparel and new vehicles.

Still, the fate of shoppers may depend on the outcome of the Iran war, particularly the status of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. While oil prices have eased in recent weeks, they remain well above where they stood before the Middle East conflict.

"The trouble is, the longer it takes to find a resolution, the more likely oil prices remain elevated. And the longer energy prices stay elevated; the stickier inflation can get," Bret Kenwell, an investing analyst at eToro, told ABC News.

What does the inflation report mean for interest rates?

For now, futures markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady when policy makers meet next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of investor sentiment.

The meeting will be the first since Kevin Warsh began a four-year term atop the central bank.

During his term as a Fed governor in the late 2000s and early 2010s, Warsh gained a reputation as an interest-rate "hawk," meaning he generally preferred higher interest rates as a means of ensuring low and stable inflation.

Last year, however, Warsh voiced support for lower interest rates, rebuking the Fed's concern about inflation risk posed by a flurry of new tariffs.

At his Senate confirmation hearing in April, Warsh emphasized the threat posed by elevated inflation.

"When inflation surges -- as it has done in recent years -- grievous harm is done to our citizens, especially to the least well-off," Warsh said.

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(TORONTO) -- An Air Canada pilot was arrested Monday after a probe discovered he had been allegedly flying hundreds of flights for at least 17 years without a proper license.

Canadian police officials outlined Geoffrey Wall's alleged fraud, which they said, "read like a movie script."

Since 2009, when Wall was promoted to captain, he has been flying with a fraudulent airline transport pilot license, the credential that would allow him to fly commercial airplanes as a captain, Peel Regional Police said.  

Authorities compared Wall to a doctor who is licensed to practice family medicine marching into a hospital to perform brain surgery. 

"Licensing requirements exist for a reason. They exist to keep people safe," Deputy Chief Nick Milinovich of the Peel Regional Police said.

Wall's arrest was part of a fraud investigation dubbed "Project Icarus," which started after a random certification check done last year at Pearson International Airport in Toronto turned up "anomalies," investigators said.

Wall, 59, of Barrie, Ontario, is no longer working with Air Canada, the airline said Monday night.

In a news release, Air Canada said it "takes this matter with utmost seriousness."

"Safety was not compromised by this incident because all pilots at Air Canada undergo mandatory recurrent training every six months to validate their flying competency, including a flight check with a certified Transport Canada check-pilot every 12 months," the airline said in a statement.

"However, appropriate licensing is an essential layer of the airline industry’s multi-layered approach to safety, so Air Canada takes this matter with utmost seriousness," it added.

Wall is charged with fraud, public mischief and other offenses.  He was released on his own recognizance and is due back in court later this month.

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(NEW YORK) -- OpenAI, the artificial-intelligence company behind ChatGPT, announced Monday night it had filed confidentially for an initial public offering (IPO), setting up the firm to raise fresh funds as it competes with deep-pocketed tech giants in the fast-growing AI industry.

In a post on X, OpenAI said it had not determined when the company would begin listing on public markets.

"We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company. But it’s a complicated set of tradeoffs and this gives us the option to go public sooner if that ends up being best," the company said.

The move would subject the privately held company to new scrutiny from public investors and regulators, as well as ongoing financial reporting requirements. OpenAI valued itself at $852 billion after a round of funding in March.

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(NEW YORK) -- Hiring blew past expectations in May, registering at a blockbuster clip despite a continued rise in inflation set off by the Iran War.

The U.S. added 172,000 jobs in May, according to the report, which marked an acceleration from 115,000 jobs added in April. The reading for April exceeded economists' expectations. The reading amounted to a slight downshift from March, when the U.S. economy gained 185,000 jobs.

Still, the job gains in May indicated a robust expansion of the labor market, defying concern about a potential economic downturn. Hiring has proven unexpectedly resilient in recent months, despite a rise in costs borne by businesses and shoppers.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said. Unemployment remains low by historical standards.

The leisure and hospitality sector added 70,000 jobs in May, far exceeding an average of 14,000 jobs added each month over the past year. Job gains also came in local government and healthcare.

The Middle East conflict, which began on Feb. 28, prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded.

The U.S. is a net exporter of petroleum, meaning the country produces more oil than it consumes. But since oil prices are set on a global market, U.S. prices move in response to swings in worldwide supply and demand.

The price of an average gallon of gas stood at $4.24 as of Thursday, AAA data showed – an increase of $1.26 per gallon since the war began on Feb. 28. That amounts to a roughly 42% price jump in about three months.

Grocery prices have also climbed as a result of higher diesel costs borne by suppliers.

A persistent increase in consumer prices may put pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates as a means of dialing back inflation. The choice to raise interest rates could slow price increases, but it risks a cooldown in economic performance.

For now, the U.S. economy appears robust. The economy grew at a solid pace over the first three months of 2026, rebounding from sluggish performance at the end of last year.

Futures markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady when policymakers meet next month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of investor sentiment.

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(NEW YORKI) --Drivers stung by high gas prices have enjoyed some welcome relief over the last couple of weeks, even as the impact of the Iran war continues to choke off oil supply.

The national average price of a gallon of gas stood at $4.26 on Wednesday, marking a decline of 30 cents, or 6.5%, since a recent peak on May 21.

Still, prices remain well above where they clocked in before a historic oil shock set off by the war. In late February, the average gallon of gas ran less than $3.

The dropoff in gas prices owes to a decline in oil costs over the latter part of last month, which coincided with a slump in demand following Memorial Day weekend, some analysts said.

Still, they cautioned, gas prices may rise again as oil prices jump and the war shows little sign of an imminent resolution. If the war continues, some analysts said, gas price could top $5 a gallon by next month.

"It's so volatile," Patrick Penfield, a professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University, told ABC News. "If the war ended, prices would likely go down. But if it continues, you'll see prices go up."

In Georgia, the state with the lowest average gas prices, a gallon costs about $3.79, AAA data shows. In all, the AAA data says six states currently sell gas at or below an average price of $4 per gallon.

By contrast, the cost of a gallon of gas in California stands at $5.99, making it the state with the highest prices, AAA data shows. Even in California, however, the average price has fallen about 10 cents over the past week.

At the outset of the war, gasoline prices surged in response to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global crude supply.

Oil prices began to fall in mid-May, however, as Iran and the U.S. appeared willing to strike an agreement that would reopen the strait. Crude oil is the main ingredient in auto fuel, accounting for more than half of the price paid at the pump, according to the federal U.S. Energy Information Administration.

On Friday, U.S. oil prices fell as low as about $86 a barrel, marking a drop of about 20% over a 10-day stretch.

"Gas prices have seen a big push because crude prices have dropped. Crude prices have dropped largely because the president has been indicating that we're close to an agreement with Iran," Ramanan Krishnamoorti, a professor of petroleum engineering at the University of Houston, told ABC News.

The U.S. is a net exporter of petroleum, meaning the country produces more oil than it consumes. But since oil prices are set on a global market, U.S. prices move in response to swings in worldwide supply and demand.

Oil prices have ticked up in recent days, but they remain below $100 a barrel. As long as oil prices remain under that benchmark, gas prices may continue to hold steady or even decline, Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Dow Jones Energy, told ABC News.

A near-term drop in gas prices appears possible because gas sellers are holding onto unusually large profit margins, meaning they could reduce retail prices even if their input costs maintain current levels, Cinquegrana said. Over the past two years, the average margin for sellers came in at about 34 cents per gallon, he added, but it currently stands at 50 cents per gallon.

"There's still some room for gas prices to move down," Cinquegrana said.

Looking weeks or months into the future, however, analysts cautioned about a rise in oil and gasoline prices unless normal tariff resumes in the Strait of Hormuz.

"It's still possible later this summer, even ahead of July 4, we could see the national average pass $5 a gallon," Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, told ABC News Live on Monday.

"We could be seeing much higher gas prices in very short order if the strait doesn't reopen," he added.

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(NEW YORK) -- A court filing shows how businesses are getting money back from the U.S. government after the Supreme Court ruled many of President Donald Trump's tariffs were illegal.

The Trump administration has sent out $20.6 billion in tariff refunds so far, according to a new court filing.

The filing sheds light on how tens of thousands of American businesses are starting to get money back from the federal government after the Supreme Court ruled many of President Donald Trump's tariffs were illegal in February.

Walmart suggested last week it will cut prices for shoppers using the estimated $2.4 billion in refunds it's owed.

"On tariffs, we are availing ourselves of the process to get refunds. We would definitely bias and try to prioritize price investment for that ... we think the single best return that we can have on a $1 of capital right now is to invest in the customer and invest in price," Walmart CFO John David Rainey said on the company's earnings call.

Major companies like Walmart, Costco, Apple, Home Depot and General Motors have all confirmed in recent weeks they're applying for refunds.

It's unlikely that most companies will give money directly back to shoppers who already bought products with higher prices because of tariffs. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates the tariffs that were ruled illegal cost the typical American household $700 last year.

UPS, FedEx and DHL said they will directly refund customers. UPS recently updated its website with details on how importers can claim to get money back.

In total, U.S. Customs and Border Protection has said it could owe up to $166 billion to more than 330,000 importers. The new filing notes $85 billion in refunds have been accepted so far, and the $20.6 billion represents money that has successfully gone back to importers who filed for refunds on the government's online portal.

A U.S. trade official previously overstated the amount of money that had gone out to companies by $10 billion, the filing noted.

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(NEW YORK) -- The top financial officer in New York City on Thursday warned that artificial intelligence could put thousands of workers in the nation’s largest metropolis out of a job as soon as this year, while acknowledging that the ultimate impact of AI remains uncertain.

The only sure thing, New York City Comptroller Mark Levin said in a new report: AI promises a “radical transformation” in the globe’s financial capital, influencing everything from wages to pension payments to Wall Street profits.

Levin, a Democratic former New York City Council member, predicted a range of scenarios both positive and negative, gauging the likelihood of outcomes as bullish as a broad-based productivity boom and as detrimental as mass layoffs.

City policymakers stand to play a central role in the technology’s ultimate fate, Levin added, calling for urgent steps like creating a multi-billion dollar financial cushion in case economic calamity strikes.

“There is no city in America – and perhaps none on earth – more exposed to both the promise and peril of artificial intelligence than New York City. And there are few places with more power to steer the transformation ahead,” Levin said in the report.

New York City hosts "hundreds of firms competing to make New York the capital of applied AI," Levine added, as well as roughly one million workers who labor in Manhattan office towers, many of whom stand at risk of AI disruption. The high stakes exemplify a reckoning likely to play out in cities nationwide, he said.

“Uncertainty is not an excuse for inaction,” Levin said, saying local policies should complement much-needed efforts at the federal level. “We are not helpless.”

The report comes as the stock market and the economy overall have both come to increasingly rely on massive spending on AI to propel continued growth, even as companies warn of job losses tied to the technology.

A wave of thousands of job cuts attributed to artificial intelligence over recent months has taken hold in industries as diverse as tech and airlines. In April, AI company Anthropic opted against releasing its latest model, Mythos, expressing concern that the tool could be used to bypass cybersecurity protections across the internet.

Blockbuster earnings from chip giant Nvidia on Wednesday, meanwhile, rebuked fears of a slowdown in the rip-roaring pace of growth for the artificial intelligence behemoth.

In his report, Levin assessed five potential scenarios for AI uptake in New York City, focusing on potential economic downsides and benefits of each. The forecast draws upon national AI scenarios developed by Moody’s Analytics, adapting them for New York City, Levin said.

In the most likely outcome, dubbed the “AI-Empowered Economy,” Levin predicted that AI would improve productivity while delivering moderate economic growth, including an average of about 52,000 jobs added each year through 2030. Levin pegged the likelihood of this outcome at 35%.

A more pessimistic scenario, which Levin called “AI Falls Flat," foresees a drop-off in AI investment and an accompanying stock market slide. If this outcome comes to pass, New York City would lose about 52,500 jobs as soon as this year, suffering temporary ill-effects akin to those that coincide with a recession, Levin said. The probability of this scenario, he added, stands at 25%.

Other possible outcomes include “faster-than-expected AI” adoption that improves productivity but replaces jobs, as well as an “AI shockwave” that upends white-collar employment.

The "most optimistic" of the five scenarios, Levin says, is a "Productivity Boon," in which AI-driven productivity growth complements job growth, rather than displacing it, boosting compensation in the process. Levin puts the likelihood of this outcome at 15%.

To be sure, Levin said, the potential economic impact of AI remains highly uncertain. Other economic trends unrelated to AI could also hold significant implications for the city's economy, Levin added, pointing to a historic oil shock that has driven up fuel and grocery prices.

Levin touted the role of local government in responding to the changes wrought by AI, whether they prove favorable or otherwise.

"These are not questions we can leave to Silicon Valley, Washington, or the market alone. New Yorkers must help shape the future ourselves," Levin said.

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(NEW YORK) -- U.S. Treasury yields soared in recent days as the Iran war stoked inflation fears, threatening to drive up borrowing costs for everything from mortgages to credit cards to auto loans.

The yields on 30-year bonds – the amount paid to a bondholder annually – touched their highest point since 2007. Ten-year Treasury yields peaked at about 4.69% on Tuesday, marking a roughly three-quarter percentage point jump from the start of the war on Feb. 28.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries retreated on Wednesday, registering at 4.58%. Still, yields exceed the level reached during a bond selloff in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025.

Since bonds pay a given investor a fixed amount each year, the specter of inflation risks higher consumer prices that would eat away at those annual payouts. In this case, a global oil shock has pushed up energy prices which in turn has trickled into other costs, such as groceries.

As a result, bonds have become less attractive. When demand falls, bond yields rise.

“It’s really all about the Iran war and its inflationary impact,” Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate, told ABC News.

High bond yields make borrowing more expensive for average Americans because Treasury rates influence the rates offered by lenders.

Long-term Treasury yields help set interest payments for mortgages, credit cards, car loans and just about any other type of borrowing, Patrice Carrington, a professor of real estate at New York University, told ABC News.

The reason for the rise in borrowing costs is that regulated lenders are required to hold reserve assets, often made up in part by U.S. Treasuries, Carrington added. When Treasury yields rise, it raises the costs incurred by banks holding Treasuries on their books. Lenders, in turn, offset those added expenses with higher borrowing costs.

“The bank will pass along that higher cost of capital to any consumer loan,” Carrington said.

The onset of this pain for consumers is exemplified by the housing market, where the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage stands at 6.72% as of Monday, Mortgage News Daily data showed. Mortgage rates have climbed three-quarters of a percentage point from pre-war levels.

“That’s a really big jump,” Rossman said.

Each percentage-point rise in a mortgage rate can impose thousands or tens of thousands of dollars in additional costs each year, depending on the price of the house, according to Rocket Mortgage.

Credit card rates, by contrast, have remained flat over the course of the Iran war, though at heightened levels, Rossman said.

The average credit card interest rate stands at 19.57%, just slightly below where it stood before the war began, Bankrate data showed. At the start of 2026, futures markets expected the Fed to likely cut interest rates at least once by the end of the year, which would put downward pressure on credit card rates.

As the Fed weathers a renewed bout of inflation, however, markets estimate about a 50% chance of interest rates remaining unchanged over the course of the year and a 37% chance of a rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment. Markets peg the odds of a rate cut this year at less than 2%.

As a result, credit card rates "are staying higher for longer" than many observers anticipated, Rossman said.

Analysts differed in their recommendations for consumers weighing whether to move forward now with securing a loan or wait for a potential decline in interest rates.

Liu Lu, a professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, said mortgage rates are unlikely to decline substantially in the near-term, meaning borrowers who can afford a loan at current rates may as well take the plunge.

“I wouldn’t bet on trying to catch the opportune moment,” Lu told ABC News.

Carrington, on the other hand, counseled patience for loan seekers.

Eventually, the economy will falter and the Fed will cut interest rates, pushing down borrowing costs, according to Carrington.

“We’re long overdue for a downturn,” Carrington said. “I absolutely think borrowers should wait.”

In the meantime, the impact of elevated bond yields on consumers isn't entirely negative. The trend means better returns for investors who place their money into financial instruments such as money market funds or high-interest savings accounts, which are historically safer investments than the stock market.

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(NEW YORK) -- A jury on Monday found that Elon Musk waited too long to bring claims accusing OpenAI, under Sam Altman’s leadership, of abandoning its public-benefit mission as it moved toward a for-profit structure.

The nine-person advisory jury determined that the claims against OpenAI and Altman were barred due to the statute of limitations. Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers accepted the determination and dismissed the claims.

The three-week trial at a federal courthouse in Oakland, California, featured testimony from Musk and Altman, as well as Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.

When Musk sued OpenAI and Altman two years ago, he claimed that the company abandoned its mission of benefiting humanity.

Musk, a co-founder of OpenAI, said he reached an agreement with the company's leaders on the nonprofit course of the firm when it launched in 2015.

Musk accused the company of later breaching agreement when it made ChatGPT-4 available for use by Microsoft -- meaning the tech giant got access to the then-most powerful version of its popular chatbot under an exclusive licensing agreement. Microsoft and OpenAI have renegotiated the exclusive licensing agreement, allowing OpenAI to strike deals with other tech firms.

OpenAI rebuked the charges, calling them "baseless." Microsoft also denied any wrongdoing. Musk, the world's richest person, counts $803 billion in wealth, according to Forbes. He was seeking $150 billion in damages from the tech companies, as well as the removal of Altman from OpenAI's board of directors.

Musk also sought a legal order that requires OpenAI to abide by its alleged founding mission of aiding humanity and retaining its nonprofit form

OpenAI, which is not publicly traded, valued itself at $852 billion after a round of funding in March. Microsoft's value -- as measured by market capitalization -- stands at about $3.1 trillion.

Musk pleaded two claims against OpenAI: unjust enrichment and breach of charitable trust.

Lawyers for Altman argued that Musk was motivated by a pursuit of control over OpenAI, rather than an effort to safeguard its non-profit status. In fact, Musk sought to fold OpenAI into Tesla -- a move that would have absorbed the venture into a for-profit entity, lawyers for Altman said in a legal filing.

In 2018, Musk told a former OpenAI employee that financial support from Tesla would help OpenAI compete with tech giant Google, the filing said.

"Tesla [was] the only path that could even hope to hold a candle to Google," Musk said, according to the legal filing.

For his part, Musk said in the lawsuit that the agreement on OpenAI's non-profit status was memorialized in a legal filing when OpenAI was incorporated.

In the lawsuit, Musk alleged that Altman and OpenAI President Greg Brockman reaffirmed the founding agreement in written messages over the ensuing years.

"[I] remain enthusiastic about the non-profit structure!" Altman wrote to Musk in 2017, according to the lawsuit.

Musk, who helped bankroll OpenAI, launched a rival for-profit AI company in 2023 called xAI, which built a chatbot that competes with ChatGPT.

Acknowledging his previous criticism of the pace and ambitions of AI development, Musk said in a conference call on X in July 2023 that he entered the industry reluctantly.

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